Another wildcard is discounting, as well as the general economy. This has been a major topic of discussion for us recently, most notably in What Does Walt Disney World Do During A Recession? The chances are slim that Disney will lower prices if everything else is equal. However, it’s possible that right now all else isn’t equal.

To the contrary, Walt Disney World has been waiting almost two years with pent-up demand, significant spending, restricted space, and so on. It’s conceivable that supply and demand will normalize, there will be a modest economic downturn, or even a recession. Prices falling from one year to the next is plausible—and there’s evidence for it.